Primary Election Day is a week away in Connecticut. The stakes are high this year; the top two races reflect a deep divide in the Democratic Party between older incumbents and younger candidates.
Other stakes are high, too — betting stakes.
In the last two years, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity. Users can bet on pretty much anything, including the August 11 Democratic and Republican primaries in Connecticut.
More than $100,000 is on the line next Tuesday, and more bets will almost certainly be placed. More than half of that is on the primary between Governor Ned Lamont (D) and State Representative Josh Elliott (D-Hamden).
In the state’s first U.S. House of Representatives district race between incumbent John Larson (D-CT-1) and former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin (D), more than $38,000 has been spent.
Richard Warr is a researcher and professor of finance at the Poole College of Management at North Carolina State University.
He said platforms aren’t the ones drafting the contracts; rather, users suggest them.
“Lots of the little elections are driven by people wanting to basically bet on something, and so I think [the markets] are going to become increasingly a part of the narrative around election cycles,” Warr said.
In some cases, prediction markets can predict the outcome of an election more reliably than typical opinion polls, Warr said. Asking people who they want to win versus asking them to put money on who they think will win yields different results.
That opens the door for candidates to bet on themselves to improve their chances.
How the markets are and are not regulated is a point of contention. They’re overseen by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission as opposed to the states, which typically oversee betting.
New York sued Kalshi last week, accusing the company of running an illegal gambling organization.
There are highly publicized insider trading concerns with the sites. President Donald Trump’s teleprompter operator was recently placed on unpaid leave for allegedly betting on what Trump would say in his speeches, which he had advance copies of.
Plus, is it really healthy for society to put money on everything?
“I think it's a little concerning,” Warr said. “People have always bet on things, particularly in sports, but the dollar amounts now that are being funneled into sports betting and prediction market betting are really crazy amounts of money.”
While it might not be the most conventional way, Warr said prediction markets could get people who typically wouldn’t care about a primary election interested in politics.
