Election Day is finally here. What has the final push looked like for candidates in Connecticut?
WSHU’s Ebong Udoma spoke with CT Mirror’s Mark Pazniokas to talk about the final hours leading up to Election Day as part of the collaborative podcast Long Story Short. Read Mark’s coverage here.
WSHU: Hello, Mark. Connecticut Democrats now have supermajorities in the state House, 102 to 49, and in the Senate, 25 to 11. Yet lawmakers broadly agree Democrats might hold even larger margins after this election. How much lower could Republicans fall?
MP: Well, the modern record for dubious achievement in a General Assembly majority is in the post-Watergate election of 1974, and you know, as is the case today, where the unpopularity of Donald Trump is driving down, or looks like it will drive down, numbers for Republicans. In 1974, it was a fellow named Richard Nixon and the scandal of Watergate, and that was the all-time low in the state senate. The Republicans only won seven seats.
WSHU: Wow!
MP: And in the House, it was 33. After the Barack Obama landslide of 2008, Republicans won 37 of the 151 seats in the House. But one of the things that was very, very different in 1974- I mean, that was truly an earthquake in the sense that we went from strong Republican majorities overnight to completely flipping to strong Democratic majorities. What we are looking at this year is simply a continued erosion of the Republican base in the General Assembly this year. It's not going to be anything nearly as dramatic as in 1974, when Republicans lost 60 House seats in Connecticut, and that was back in the days when Connecticut had something called the party lever, so people could go in and just cast one vote, and it would just, you know, it could really, you know, change things in a dramatic way. So it's a different situation.
WSHU: What is similar is that there are headwinds, to say the least, from the national level that are harming Republicans in Connecticut at this point.
MP: Now, one seat that might be vulnerable for Republicans is one of the longest-serving members of the Senate: State Senator John Kissel in Enfield. Could you just tell us a little bit about that district and why Kissel, after all these years, you know, is facing a tough time this time around?
It's interesting. John Kissel was elected in 1992, which was an interesting time for Republicans to win that seat. It had been a Democratic seat in 1992. That was the election where Bill Clinton carried Connecticut, and it was the first Democrat in a long time to do so in a presidential race. Of course, that started a string that has continued to this day. So John Kissel, his district is northern, north-central Connecticut. His base is in Enfield. Enfield has been a very volatile town, politically speaking. It has a Democratic advantage in voter registration, but not overwhelmingly so. It's also a place where local races have gone back and forth. Republicans ran their local government until last year. That was one of the towns that flipped for the Democrats. So there is a sense this year that, given the influence of President Trump, you know, not just in Connecticut but across the country, that there is a belief that Kissel is vulnerable, and he does seem to share that assessment. He has not conceded that he is going to lose Tuesday night. But when I saw him yesterday, campaigning with Ryan Fazio (R), the gubernatorial candidate, he said it's been a privilege to have the seat and a good long run. And he also made a joke about not only is he like a cat with the last of his nine lives, but he is also more like the second cat's worth of nine lives, and he's on the last one. So we'll see Tuesday night how much truly of a wave election this is, and you know how far it will reach?
WSHU: So how are Republicans prepared to deal with the aftermath of the election?
MP: People in both parties are already looking ahead to what the next election will be without the influence of Donald Trump. Donald Trump has been the best organizer Democrats have had in blue states, so Democrats are being pretty honest about saying his departure is going to be a challenge for them, and they're going to have to find ways to motivate people to turn out and vote the way that Donald Trump has done for Democrats. After Trump's election, 2016 was a big municipal year in 2017 for Democrats, followed by a big General Assembly year in 2018 for Democrats, and then, you know, the same thing happened after Trump's return to the White House after 2024. Another big year for Democrats in the 2025 municipal races. And the question is to what extent will it happen again for the General Assembly,
WSHU: But bottom line, there's going to be a change in the landscape, and people are trying to figure out how they're going to deal with a post-Trump era.
MP: Yes, the Republicans will have their own internal debates about what their identity is, what issues unite them, and what issues will work in Connecticut in 2028. And then again, the Democrats. How do they motivate their people to turn out after Donald Trump isn't on the ballot in 2028? Although who knows, I wouldn't predict Donald Trump will disappear from the landscape just because he's not on the ballot this time. And as he's said over and over again, pretend I'm on the ballot. And of course, the Democrats are happier with that suggestion than the Republicans are.
WSHU: Well, thank you so much. Great having you as always, Paz.
MP: Thank you, Ebong.
