President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race could have significant implications for down-ballot races on Long Island. WSHU’s Desiree D’Iorio spoke with Lawrence Levy from the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University about what could be in store for the Long Island congressional delegation.
WSHU: How does Biden dropping out of the race impact our Long Island congressional races?
LL: Biden stepping down removes a potential drag on the rest of the tickets all over the country, whether it's congressional or state, legislative, or any position down to dog catcher. When the top of the ticket is having problems, it filters all the way down to everybody else in their party. Biden's stepping down has created — across the country, as well as on Long Island and in other competitive suburban swing areas — a collective sigh of relief.
On Long Island, in particular, the third and fourth districts are the ones to be most affected. But it's also possible that the first district could see a surge of energy, both in terms of feet on the ground and money in the till, to make that race, even if it's tilting Republican, more competitive for the Democrat John Avlon.
WSHU: This will no longer be a Biden/Trump matchup. Assuming Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee, do you think Harris could pull in some of the younger voters who had been apathetic about a choice between Biden and Trump?
LL: Harris ascending to the top of the ticket helps the Democrats across the board with younger voters who were looking for an alternative that was not quite as old as their great grandfathers, with Asian voters who have been leaning towards the Republicans but may find Kamala Harris's Asian roots to be intriguing, if not appealing; with Black voters in particular. And I think that's the one that gives Democrats on Long Island, particularly in the fourth district now held by Anthony D’Esposito (R), some hope.
And, of course, women. Moderate, suburban, independent women who aren't beholden to any party. They're energized by the abortion issue, but didn't quite see a compelling standard bearer or torchbearer to represent them. Now, all of these groups have something new to kind of wrap their arms around and perhaps get excited about.
One of the reasons that Anthony D’Esposito was able to beat Laura Gillen (D) by a few thousand votes in a district that Joe Biden won by 14% was the lack of turnout among primarily Black voters. And the idea that this district, which has a lot of Black voters, might be energized by the possibility of electing the first Black woman to be president of the United States, is terrifying to Republicans.
Barack Obama carried Nassau County, but he lost most of white communities. Not by a lot — he didn't get blown out, but he didn't carry them. He was able to pile up the numbers, particularly in Nassau, because there was an enormous surge in Black communities. So this is something that Republicans are concerned about, and Democrats are excited.
WSHU: What are you watching for in these campaigns as we head toward Election Day?
Levy: In terms of the down-ballot campaigns on Long Island and in other swing suburban areas, I'm looking to see how much the Democratic candidates link themselves to Kamala Harris, when it was pretty clear they were going to distance themselves as much as possible from Joe Biden.
I'm looking for unity of message, a sharing of the surge of fundraising that we've seen since Biden dropped out and Harris dropped in. Mostly, whether the Democrats can run a campaign that pulls in the same direction, avoids or somehow overcomes the fractures that existed before the debate debacle over the Israel-Hamas war and some other issues that tended to divide progressives and moderates.
I'm looking for real unity, to kind of operationalize the energy.
Frankly, Harris has done a great job at bringing together major figures of the party and the Biden campaign apparatus around her. She still has to prove that she is better on the stump and in other ways than the candidate we saw in 2019 and 2020: a vice president who got off to a rough start in the first year of the Biden administration. She seems to be stronger. She's getting higher marks for her work out on the trail, particularly since the debate defending Biden, and campaigning, particularly on behalf of abortion rights.
But now that the hottest, brightest spotlight on the political planet is shining in her eyes, how will she respond?
WSHU: Many people argue that a candidate’s VP pick never matters very much. But when we focus on Long Island, and considering the expedited timetable Harris is on assuming she’s the nominee, do you think the Democratic VP pick will matter?
Levy: The Hippocratic Oath in medicine is not unlike the Hippocratic Oath in picking a vice president: first, do no harm. Generally speaking, vice presidents don't have much of an impact. I think it can be argued that Joe Biden was very helpful to Barack Obama, but most fade into the so-called woodwork.
This time, I think the vice presidential choice for Harris will carry more weight, because things are happening so quickly. She's a relatively unknown quantity. And this becomes the first decision she makes, which in turn will be viewed through a lot of different lenses, like “What kind of judgment does she have? What kind of priorities? What's her comfort level in terms of partnerships?”
So in this case, I think it will have a much bigger impact on the race moving forward.
WSHU: The Long Island Republicans who are running for reelection in the first [Nick LaLota], second [Andrew Garbarino] and fourth [D’Esposito] districts — do you think Biden withdrawing from the race will push those three to more closely align themselves with Trump? I ask because all three of them have not been in complete lockstep with Trump on things like the SALT cap and the border bill.
Levy: Republicans running in predominantly moderate suburban swing districts have had a balancing act all throughout this past term. They couldn't afford to alienate the MAGA base that supports Donald Trump, but they also couldn't afford to be seen as too conservative or even radical for a voting bloc that tends to shy away from extremism of any stripe.
So it’s going to be interesting to see how LaLota, Garbarino and D’Esposito, in particular, walk that tightrope. How will they position themselves? How green will they try to come across in terms of being environmentally sensitive? How supportive of labor, in an area that has strong and influential labor unions? How much will they be supportive of educational and social programs that a lot of ultra-conservatives would like to see go away, but are popular among Long Islanders, particularly women with children? So they have a much more difficult task all of a sudden than the Democrats have, who no longer have to worry about distancing themselves from an unpopular president.
