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Since launching the war with Iran in February, President Trump has repeatedly said the U.S. is close to a deal with Iran to end it. The most recent version could include new negotiations about Iran's nuclear program. Trump hopes to improve on the nuclear deal secured by President Obama back in 2015. So far, though, that has proved elusive. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam has our report.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: President Trump has never been shy about sharing his thoughts on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal brokered by President Obama.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: The Obama deal was a disgrace.
NORTHAM: In his first term, Trump tore up the Obama deal, promising to replace it with a tougher version. Very little is known about what details he's now negotiating with Iran, but Trump has been clear about one thing.
AARON DAVID MILLER: He keeps saying it over and over and over again. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
NORTHAM: Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says Trump was angry the JCPOA allowed Iran limited amounts of uranium enrichment for civilian use.
MILLER: Trump administration position is a moratorium on enrichment. That is to say, not an end but a suspension, cessation for a discreet period of time - president proposed 20 years.
NORTHAM: Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says the Obama deal allowed Iran to keep key nuclear facilities such as Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. The three sites were damaged by U.S. attacks earlier this year in June 2025 but are still standing.
MARK DUBOWITZ: And a deal would require Iran, if Trump gets the terms that he wants, to fully dismantle these facilities and not rebuild them. That would be a huge difference from JCPOA.
NORTHAM: A new nuclear deal with Iran will have to be different than the 2015 agreement because so much has changed in the interim, says Eric Brewer with the Nuclear Threat Initiative. He says Iran has acquired better technology and skills over the years.
ERIC BREWER: When Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Iran expanded its program pretty dramatically, including developing advanced centrifuges that enrich uranium more efficiently and producing 60% enriched uranium, which is just a step away from weapons grade.
NORTHAM: By that token, says Brewer, a new nuclear deal will have to be far more robust. But Iran is in a strong position for negotiations. It has control of the Strait of Hormuz, hurting the world's economy and Trump politically. Brewer says if the White House wants a nuclear deal, it'll likely have to provide Iran with economic incentives.
BREWER: Iran is not going to give up its program for free. And I would add - Iran's asking price on that front is probably higher than it was in 2015 for similar types of concessions, right? It's probably going to want more sanctions relief upfront.
NORTHAM: Iran is also requesting billions of dollars for reconstruction that are frozen in overseas bank accounts. Trump has regularly mocked Obama for sending $1.7 billion to Iran. Trump could face a sharp backlash from Iran hawks and others if he sends more than that in an effort to open the Strait of Hormuz. Miller with Carnegie says Trump will find that hard to stomach.
MILLER: What he cannot abide, 'cause it will be a legacy issue, is an outcome that paints him to be a loser, a sucker, having been played by the regime that he intended to weaken, if not change.
NORTHAM: Dubowitz maintains the U.S. is in a better place than it would have been if Trump hadn't pulled out of the Obama nuclear deal because Iran would have emerged with a legal nuclear program. But Dubowitz says that doesn't mean Trump will be able to close a new deal.
DUBOWITZ: I think ultimately, he's going to have to face the reality that this regime is not prepared to abandon a nuclear program that it's invested decades and hundreds of billions of dollars in and sees as the only guarantee of its survival.
NORTHAM: The Obama nuclear deal took two years of painstaking negotiations. With key midterms looming, Trump doesn't have the luxury of time. Jackie Northam, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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