MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
For more on this, we have Alex Conant. He is a Republican strategist with the public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies. Alex, thanks so much for coming back to see us.
ALEX CONANT: Good morning.
MARTIN: So Marjorie Taylor Greene is such a unique figure in politics, even in this era. But she's been such a strong loyalist for President Trump. Does her recent trajectory, like Steve pointed out - questioning the president's conduct, not just on the Epstein files, but on other policies - does that tell you anything about the state of the MAGA coalition?
CONANT: Yeah, I mean, there's been a simmering debate within not just the Trump administration but the Republican Party as a whole over the last several years between the MAGA coalition, as you put it, and traditional conservatives. And you see it bubble up on issues like Israel, where you have a lot of people, MAGA leaders like the congresswoman, like Steve Bannon who don't want America to be very involved, don't want us to be as supportive of Israel compared to the more traditional conservatives.
You see it on issues like health care, on issues even like the Epstein files, where you have (laughter) sort of the conspiracy theorists against the more traditionalists. And, you know, at the end of the day, these issues are starting to bubble up into the public. And I think what we saw over the weekend was the most vivid example of this coalition really has a lot of debate going on within it. And I think Trump is starting to struggle just really trying to keep it together.
MARTIN: And what about her decision to resign? Does this strengthen or weaken or have any effect on the president's hold on MAGA?
CONANT: Well, she's always been a bit of an iconoclast and, frankly, not all that popular within the Republican House caucus. I think the most immediate challenge is that he already has a slim House majority. It just got one vote less. And, you know, if some of her colleagues look at her and say, geez, you know, being a member of Congress isn't all it's cracked up to be, and they start to retire, too, he could have a real crisis on his hands just in terms of keeping the majority over the next year. You know, I think, beyond that, she quit in part because he was threatening to support a primary challenge against her, and she didn't want to lose her primary. That is a tactic he has used many, many times to keep people in line. But if, looking forward, him threatening primary challenges results in people just quitting, that doesn't necessarily help his cause either.
MARTIN: You know, her online posts and her video, I'm sure you watched it. It was also an indictment of the current GOP leadership. And she predicted that Republicans would lose the House in the midterms. And I'm just interested in your take on that.
CONANT: Well, we're still over a year out. I think it's going to be a very closely fought race. You know, historically, the party in power would lose the majority, and even more so when, you know, people aren't happy about the direction of the economy. That said, we're a long way out. Republicans feel really good about a lot of their recruits. I think the president and the White House have been more engaged in recruiting strong candidates this time than they were during his first term. So Republican insiders I talk to, Republicans running campaigns, they feel pretty bullish about our chances to keep the house.
MARTIN: And, you know, the congresswoman threw cold water on this idea that she might've resigned in order to set herself up to run for president. But can you envision a different leadership role for her in the party in the future?
CONANT: Well, look, she has a very high profile. The media loves to cover her. We're talking about her right now. I think anyone who can command media attention can command political support as well, especially in this environment. I think the 2028 Republican primaries are going to be fascinating because it's going to be a real debate ultimately between, do you have an America first, MAGA-style president continue, maybe somebody like JD Vance? Or do you have a more traditional conservative, somebody who supports Israel, somebody like Ted Cruz?
I think, you know, if either of those two candidates, who both talked about running, if either of them falter, certainly somebody like MTG could see a lane. You know, whether or not she actually chose to run is anyone's guess. But I think we could end up seeing a much more competitive Republican primary than we're expecting right now, especially if Trump's political standing within the party deteriorates over the next 18 months.
MARTIN: Before we let you go, what do you make of his kind of turnabout on her? I mean, yes, he generally gets very upset when people criticize him, especially people he thinks are supposed to support him. Well, pretty much everybody. He becomes infuriated when people criticize him or say that he's not doing what he's supposed to do, et cetera. But then within the span of such a short period of time, to sort of say, well, you know, I hope she'll think about a return to politics.
CONANT: I think that's classic.
MARTIN: How do you read that?
CONANT: I think it's classic Trump. I mean, we saw the same thing with the New York mayor on Friday last week. And, you know, I worked for Marco Rubio in a previous life. You know, you talk about two guys who really went after each other and then became best friends afterwards. You know, I think Trump is one who's quick to turn this page, especially when he wins the back-and-forth.
MARTIN: That is Republican strategist Alex Conant. Alex, thank you so much.
CONANT: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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