Much of the energy in this year’s general election has been taken up by the presidential campaign between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. This has overshadowed several contested Congressional races in our area.
WSHU’s Senior Political Reporter Ebong Udoma has been looking at these races and joined Morning Edition Host Tom Kuser to talk about what he learned.
Below is a transcript of their conversation.
Ebong, which are the most prominent races on the ballot in Connecticut and on Long Island?
Tom, the most prominent races apart from the presidential are the races for U.S. Senate. In Connecticut it’s between incumbent Democrat Richard Blumenthal and a little known Republican challenger, Dan Carter, a state representative from Bethel. In New York it’s Democratic incumbent Chuck Schumer and Republican Wendy Long, a Manhattan attorney. Neither race is much of a contest. On the House side, we have five races in Connecticut and three on Long Island. I spoke with UConn political scientist Ron Schurin about the Connecticut races. Here’s what he had to say.
“The U.S. Senate race should be a clear and easy win for the incumbent Democrat, Richard Blumenthal. His opponent has had very little in the way of resources and low name recognition. He is making a valiant fight, but there is no chance that the Republican can win in that race.
In the five races for U.S. representatives, all Democrats seem to be comfortably ahead. In some cases, by landslide margins. So the Democrats should have an easier time this year than in 2014 when they also won all of the five races but did have some suspenseful contests in some of them.”
Tom, Schurin says what might be more interesting to watch are the elections for the state assembly.
Is that because Connecticut’s Democratic Governor Dannel Malloy is not very popular right now?
Yes. Schurin thinks that’s putting Democratic control of both houses of legislature in jeopardy. Here’s what he says.
“The Republicans have been trying to make this a referendum on Governor Malloy, who is very unpopular right now and trying to link Democratic incumbents with the governor. Some Democratic incumbents have gone to great lengths to distance themselves from the governor. The Republicans hope is they are going to have a victory in Connecticut this year. [If so] it will be in capturing the state Senate from the Democrats. They have less of a chance to capture the state House but hope to gain some seats there.”
Interesting. What about on Long Island? What’s happening there?
There are three Congressional Districts on Long Island. In New York’s 1st District on the eastern end of the Island, freshman Republican Lee Zeldin is facing a challenge from Democrat Anna Throne-Holst, the Southampton town supervisor. In the 2nd District longtime incumbent Republican Peter King is being challenged by Democrat DuWayne Gregory, the presiding officer in the Suffolk County legislature. In the 3rd District, former Nassau County Supervisor Tom Souzzi, a Democrat, is up against Republican Jack Martins for an open seat that’s being vacated by retiring Democratic Congressman Steve Israel. I spoke with Hofstra University Political Science Professor Larry Levy about these races. Here’s a bit of our conversation.
“It looks like it’s going to be a wash. The Democrats had hoped they could pick up the 1st District. Lee Zeldin is a freshman, and of course the first time you run for re-election you are most vulnerable. and the Democrats thought that having Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket would bring a maximum turnout of Democrats. But the most recent poll shows Zeldin with a substantial lead. It’s maybe one of the few areas in a major suburb that Trump does not seem to have much of a negative impact down-ballot on other Republicans.
Anna Throne-Holst, a town supervisor in Southampton. She is running a vigorous campaign. The Democrats have raised a lot of money for it, but unless she closes very fast and runs well ahead of the polls it might be a tough election night for her.
Peter King is a Long Island perennial. He has never lost an election. He is facing a strong political figure in Suffolk County DuWayne Gregory, the presiding officer of the county legislature. But Mr. Gregory just hasn’t been able to raise much money.”
And now the 3rd District is open right now.
“Yes and was held by Congressman Steve Israel. It was a district drawn for a Democrat. And the reason the Republicans thought they had a shot is because Jack Martins, their candidate, is a sitting state senator. And Suozzi was a mayor of Glen Cove, which is a city in the district. And he was the Nassau County executive for eight years. And he challenged Elliot Spitzer in a Democratic primary for governor. So he’s very well known.”
Does Zeldin‘s support for Trump play a role in the Congressional races on Long Island?
Well, Levy seems to think so. Here’s what he says.
“For Zeldin, Trump might be a positive, or certainly not much of a negative. In the Souzzi district, Trump is probably going to be a negative, there are many more Democrats, many more progressive Democrats, who are not feeling very good about the Republican brand now. So things are really looking up for Souzzi whose numbers in recent polling are similar to Zeldin’s. So in the end, the Democratic-held seat is probably going to stay Democratic, the Republican-held seat is going to stay Republican, and Peter King would probably remain Peter King.”
Tom, I should add here that Levy believes the only way King could lose would be if this is a wave election from coast to coast with the Democrats talking over the U.S. House with a comfortable margin. And as of now that doesn’t look very likely.
Thank you, Ebong.
Thank you Tom.
Subscribe to Ebong’s podcast, Capitol Avenue, on iTunes or Google Play.
